Geopolitics

US may fret & and fume but its options are limited with Pakistan
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By B Raman
Issue Net Edition | Date : 14 Jun , 2011

Though Pakistani political and military leaders continue to criticise the Drone strikes as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty, they have not mounted pressure for stopping them.

There are only two areas where the co-operation has not been significantly affected—- the informal acceptance by the Pakistani leadership—political and military—of the Drone strikes in the two Waziristans and the Pakistani facilitation of the flow of logistic supplies to the NAO forces in Afghanistan from Karachi. Though Pakistani political and military leaders continue to criticise the Drone strikes as a violation of Pakistani sovereignty, they have not mounted pressure for stopping them.

A new issue has cropped up  in the form of the Pakistani demand for the urgent supply of two Orion maritime surveillance aircraft to the Pakistani Navy in replacement of the two that were destroyed by a group of terrorists, supposedly from the 313 Brigade, who successfully raided the base of the Pakistani Naval Air Arm at PNS Mehran in Karachi last month. The Pakistani Navy plays a role in the multi-national task force deployed in the Gulf to prevent any clandestine assistance by sea to Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. Pakistan is using this argument for urging urgent replacement of the destroyed Orion planes.

The logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan is an important card in the hands of Pakistan for being used against the US if its pressure on Pakistan reaches unacceptable levels. Pakistan had used this card last year and could use it again. Even though Russia and the Central Asian Republics (CACs) had agreed to some of the supplies going via their territory, 75 per cent of the supplies still go via Pakistan.

The logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan is an important card in the hands of Pakistan for being used against the US if its pressure on Pakistan reaches unacceptable levels.

Supply by air from the Gulf would be expensive. In the meanwhile, Pakistan’s leverage vis-à-vis the US has increased as a result of steadfast Chinese support to its counter-terrorism policies and the improvement in Pakistan’s relations with Russia which could pave the way for Pakistan becoming a full member of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO).

Because of the vital dependence on Pakistan for the movement of logistic supplies, the US finds that while it may fret and fume at Pakistani duplicity, there is little that it can do unless its punitive action against Pakistan has the support of China and Russia. This is unlikely.

The only option that could be effective against Pakistan is to declare it as a State-sponsor of International Terrorism. This would have the immediate effect of suspending US economic and military assistance to Pakistan. At the same time, it could bring moral, if not diplomatic, pressure, on other countries, including China and Russia, to stop assisting Pakistan till it effectively co-operates with the international community in counter-terrorism.

The US is paying a heavy price for its past sins of mollycoddling Pakistan”¦

This option could work only under two conditions. Firstly, the US is able to reduce its dependence on Pakistan for logistic supplies. Secondly, China and Russia co-operate with the US, at least partially if not fully. It is difficult to visualise the materialisation of these two scenarios.

Under these circumstances, the only option left for the US at present is to keep exercising more pressure on Pakistan bilaterally in the hope that the political and military leadership of Pakistan would see reason and start co-operating.

The US is paying a heavy price for its past sins of mollycoddling Pakistan despite its sponsorship of terrorism. It now realises the importance of stopping the mollycoddling, but it is not in a position to do so.

The US must undertake a crash programme for reducing its dependence on Pakistan for logistic supplies— either by using other routes via the CARs or through air-lifts from the Gulf even if they turn out to be expensive. If it can do that, it will have more options in its basket to make Pakistan act.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

B Raman

Former, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai & Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. He is the author of The Kaoboys of R&AW, A Terrorist State as a Frontline Ally,  INTELLIGENCE, PAST, PRESENT & FUTUREMumbai 26/11: A Day of Infamy and Terrorism: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow.

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