Defence Industry

Indian Air Force - Quo Vadis?
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Issue Vol 26.2 Apr-Jun 2011 | Date : 01 Feb , 2012

Whither MMRCA?

That leaves the IAF with one seemingly viable option – induction of six squadrons of Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA). With the need for replacement of the MiG21 FL fleet becoming acute and interminable delay in the Tejas programme, the case for 126 light weight (14 to 20 tons) air defence aircraft was initiated by the IAF in 2001. The proposal was subsequently modified to include heavy aircraft with multi-role capability and weight limit raised to 25 tons to go beyond the air defence role to power projection.

IAF_Morning_flightHowever, the logic of projecting a requirement of another heavy multi-role aircraft at that point in time is difficult to comprehend especially as the heavy weight category top-of-the-line multi-role fighter aircraft, the Su30 MKI, had already been contracted for and was to be license produced in large numbers within the country. However, even though the requirement for the MMRCA was projected as “urgent”, it took the government six years just to issue the Request for Proposal (RFP). Another four years have gone by since then, and the commercial bids that have already been revised once are yet to be opened.

There is clearly a gross mismatch between the perceptions of the IAF and the controlling civilian establishment in respect of both necessity and urgency of inducting the MMRCA. The selected vendor is likely to take at least three years after the award of contract to deliver the first aircraft. At this stage, as the date of opening of commercial bids is not known, it is difficult to estimate the time frame for finalisation of the tender.

“¦even though the requirement for the MMRCA was projected as “urgent”, it took the government six years just to issue the Request for Proposal (RFP). Another four years have gone by since then”¦

However, after the commercial bids are eventually opened, the decision makers will be confronted with a new dilemma – that of resolving the conflicting paradigms of cost and political compulsions. For a government struggling to extricate itself from the quagmire of scams unearthed in quick succession in the recent past, this exercise involving an outlay of over $10 billion (Rs 45,000 crore) may be a sensitive one and somewhat difficult if not impossible to finalise in the remaining three years of its tenure.

Then there is a possibility of dissatisfied vendors resorting to legal action that might derail or even scuttle the process, a possibility referred to by the CAS during a media briefing at Yelahanka while visiting Aero India 2011. Clearly, there are a number reasons that might impede the progress of the MMRCA tender, but inordinate delay in the finalisation of the contract, may render not only the commercial bid irrelevant; but could well result in the aircraft in the race and especially their avionics and other systems to be overtaken by obsolescence. As the IAF would not like the MMRCA to be outclassed by its adversaries in the next war, induction of a weapon system in a state of or approaching obsolescence is unlikely to be palatable to the organisation.

The IAF may therefore seek upgrade of certain systems before induction – an option that would be accompanied by substantial escalation in cost necessitating comprehensive review of the project, revised financial sanction and consequent delay. In the final analysis, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the MMRCA may turn out to be no more than a fading dream for the IAF.

The Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft

While there may be dark clouds looming over the MMRCA dream, what appears to be more of a reality is the possibility of a giant leap by the IAF into the next generation through the $25 billion (Rs 112,500 crore) deal with Russia for the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). As the operational doctrine of the IAF calls for multi-role combat aircraft to be of twin-seat, this project involves redesign of the single seat Sukhoi T50 also referred to as the Prospective Airborne Complex – Frontline Aviation (PAK FA).

IAF_Landing_aircraftOver the last 13 months, Sukhoi has launched two prototypes of the T50. Very recently, a design team from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), along with the engineers from the Sukhoi Design Bureau, has begun work in Russia on the stretched twin-seat version for the IAF. However, hopes of the twin-seat FGFA being ready for induction by 2017, appear somewhat over optimistic. Incidentally, the proposal for the joint development of the FGFA was discussed between the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and a preliminary agreement signed when the former was hosted as Chief Guest at the Republic Day Parade at New Delhi in January 2007.

Editor’s Pick

It has taken four years to actually kick-start the project and given the pace so far, the IAF may be fortunate if the FGFA fleet is operational by 2030! By this time the Mirage 2000 whose upgrade is still uncertain, the Mig21 Bison, the MiG 27 and the MiG 29 would have either been phased out or relegated to a tertiary role. And if the MMRCA deal does not go through for any reason, the IAF would be left with only the Su30 MKI as the primary strike element with a few Tejas Mark I confined to air defence role.

Even as the IAF prepares for the great leap into the next generation it must be realised that to erected an edifice there is the imperative of foundation. Visions of a powerful modern Air Force are undoubtedly inspiring but can the IAF really fulfill its mandate of “Touch The Sky With Glory” when its flying training infrastructure is languishing without a basic trainer since August 2009 with as yet no new induction in sight. The scenario, for a nation aspiring to be a regional power, is not very inspiring.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Air Marshal BK Pandey

Former AOC-in-C Training Command, IAF.

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