Chinese Grandiose Plan
The Chinese are known as an expansionist regime. They annexed Tibet and have got grandiose plans to occupy as much territory of neighboring countries as possible. Their attack of 1962 on Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh clearly showed their intentions of expansionism. They are claiming that Arunachal Pradesh is their territory and they do not recognize Mac Mohan line as border between China and India. In Ladhak [‘Aksai Chin’] they are in physical occupation of approximately 38,000 sq km of Indian Territory and if we add 5180 sq km of territory of Pakistan occupied Kashmir [POK] ceded to China by Pakistan in 1963 by a bi-lateral agreement which India does not recognize, enormity of loss of Indian land can be guessed. Immediately after 62 war, Zhou en Lai during his visit advised Ayub Khan of Pakistan to wage guerrilla warfare against India. Pak mujahedeen’s are more or less result of that advice only.
China has got no border agreement with India and Bhutan by design. China has been following a policy of containing and isolating India.
India shares 3225 km long border with Tibet which is sparsely guarded by both countries, there are border outposts and both country’s patrols cover the actual borders and Line of Control. There are instances of stand-off between patrols because LAC is not clearly demarcated. In 2011 both countries exchanged demarcated maps to show position of LAC. Even then there are instances of Chinese patrols infiltrating as deep as 10 km within India and pitching tents in Indian Territory (after lot of talks and persuasion they left). China has got no border agreement with India and Bhutan by design. China has been following a policy of containing and isolating India. China tried to make its presence felt by having more than friendly relations with Nepal and Myanmar. India having realized the game plan took corrective measures like PM Narendra Modi’s visit to Nepal and Myanmar and large volume of Indian aid to neighboring friendly countries. Indian aid to Nepal after devastating earthquake will go a long way in bi-lateral ties.
As known, Chinese tactics are to send its nationals in large numbers in Neelam Valley and along Bhutan border thus occupying as much of territory as possible for claiming it later on. It is well known fact that China has got designs against Indian and Bhutanese territory. As the trend is changing from large scale aggression and all out war to fighting a proxy war or Guerilla war, China is in the process of implementing this tactics.
China is rapidly growing in economic and military spheres and would like to negotiate from a more favorable position of strength so that it dominates India and Bhutan in
Settlement of boundary. Chinese navy is continuously present in Indian Ocean which is a threat to navy and national security.
Chinese Plan. The likely game plan of China could be:-
- Train, equip, finance and motivate Pakistan to send maximum number of armed insurgents into India so that besides creating critical law and order situation they keep bulk of armed forces engaged. They will also arm Pak sympathizer groups in India so that they create maximum mayhem.
- Finance and arm Left Wing Extremists [LWE] like Naxalites so that they create maximum damage and problems of law and order. As such these groups are leaning towards them.
China has the largest army in the world and has got large Navy and Air Force. Both in number and quality of equipment India Is far behind.
- Arm, finance and motivate North East India insurgents groups like Khaplang group of Nagaland, Manipur insurgents , ULFA [Anoop Chetia faction] etc so that maximum armed forces are used against them from Eastern theatre thereby reducing army from the Chinese borders and making their task easier. Recent ambush in Manipur points to Chinese intelligence complicity in it.
- In worst case scenario, since Line of Control and International border with Pakistan is more or less insulated, Pakistan with connivance of China may try and send Mujahids or insurgents from Chinese border with India. This is most unlikely as China is known for its aversion of Islamic fundamentalists on its soil but cannot be altogether ruled out. Since Sino- Indian border is thinly held and cannot be physically insulated it becomes a cakewalk.
Let us now make a comparison of armed forces of China and India. China is becoming super power and second only to USA. China has the largest army in the world and has got large Navy and Air Force. Both in number and quality of equipment India Is far behind. Indian Army is short of 10000 officers despite recruiting women officers; Indian Navy is short of 1800 officers. We are critically short of ammunition, artillery guns, tanks and its ammunition; rifles for soldiers, fighter aircrafts for air force as Mig-21 are obsolete. With 36 Rafael jets purchased from France there will be slight improvement. As already said that rather than getting involved in an all out war China will have friendly relations but animosity in actions. China will always be closer to Pakistan than India. As proved by Lakhvi’s case in UN where China openly sided with Pakistan, Chinese intentions are very clear, they will indirectly use Pakistan against India and gain both ways i.e. making India weak and Pakistan more dependent on them.
We have to pay adequate attention to Air Force and requirements of modernization and remove the shortage of officers in army and navy.
Military comparison, India/ China : Army 1325000:2,255,000, Air force 3500 out of which1320 are combat jets: around 9500 out of which 3382 are combat jets, War ships 150 :285, Nuclear war heads around 50-70:around200,Missile ICBM AGNI RANGE 5000 KM : DF41 RANGE OVER 10000 KM,TANKS around 600:around 3000,Submarine 12 :60, Aircraft carrier 1:1. It can be seen that should China attack India going on comparison of combat potential, debacle of 1962 may be repeated once again.
India’s Action India has to take lot many preventive actions which are enumerated below:
India should increase and strengthen its technological and military ties with USA, Russia, Britain, France and Israel. India should try and have joint ventures with these countries in field of development of latest weaponry and sharing of technology including joint production. The aim should be that we remain technically superior to Chinese armed forces.
To counter Chinese naval expansion in Indian Ocean and its STRING OF PEARLS doctrine we have to expand and strengthen our navy especially our submarines. We should hold regular joint naval exercises with friendly countries like America, Japan, Australia in Indian Ocean.
We have to pay adequate attention to Air Force and requirements of modernization and remove the shortage of officers in army and navy. We should develop or procure Artillery guns, tanks, ammunition and other critical deficiencies
We have to keep in mind that India is the biggest market of Chinese goods and they have to think twice before any unfriendly action. We should know that strategically we are placed next to a super power who has territorial claims and an unreliable nuclear power about whom lesser said better it is. We have to remain watchful and vigilant.