Pakistan at War with Itself
In the coming years, Islamabad will remain pre-occupied with internal strife without respite due to multiple contradictions arising out of the use of terrorism primarily against New Delhi as a tool of foreign policy.
Democratic voices are forcibly being silenced jointly by the ISI and the militant groups in Pakistan. Many journalists and intellectuals are now seeking foreign fellowships so that they may exit Pakistan.
The conflict between the Pakistan Army and the elected government will intensify. Contradiction between the Supreme Court and the Civil Government will be aggravated. This will result in increased resentment in Sind against Punjab dominated Islamabad. The Pakistan Army is over-stretched, stands degraded and despite the ongoing genocide unleashed, is unable to control Baluchistan.
The largest state, Baluchistan is moving towards independence, slowly but surely.
At the time of its creation in 1947, in and Islamic majority population of 76 million in Pakistan, the minority groups constituted approximately 13 percent. In its unholy fervour to achieve the elusive Islamic ‘purity’, the minorities were reduced to 2.5 percent even as the country’s population soared to 176 million by the year 2010. After cleansing the population of other religious groups, the dominant faction of the Punjabi Sunni Pakistan is waging war against all the other Islamic sub-groups in the continued search of the elusive Islamic ‘purity’.
There is growing resentment against the Punjabi Sunni Muslim (sixty percent of the total population), which outnumbers and dominates over the other sub-nationalities such as Pashtuns (13.5%), Sindhi (14%), Baloch (4.5%), Muhajir (8%). The Shias that constitute twenty percent of the population face sectarian violence unleashed by Sunnis. There are several other sub-groups within the larger groups with differing philosophies and school of thought, only serve to accentuate the dichotomies and divergence.
...the dirty tricks department of the ISI on behalf of the Pakistan Army has planted this document through Ijaz Mansoor since they are desperate to engineer the removal of President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani from their positions without resorting to a military coup.
The Pakistan Army primarily consists of the Punjabi Sunni Muslim. Similarly, the Irregular Forces or the “Jihad Factory” nurtured by the ISI as strategic assets for the regular army also boast of dominance by the Punjabi Sunni Muslim. The recruiting ground being mostly Punjab, it is normal for one brother to join the army and the other the jihad factory due to lack of employment opportunities.
This ethnic commonality between the Army and the Irregular Forces has created an institution strong enough to impose its will forcibly on all diverse ethnic groups and the state institutions.
Democratic voices are forcibly being silenced jointly by the ISI and the militant groups in Pakistan. Many journalists and intellectuals are now seeking foreign fellowships so that they may exit Pakistan.
The recent Memogate Scandal possibly is an excellent illustration of the dirty tricks played by the ISI. As Pakistan is a non-NATO ally of United States, the Ambassador of Pakistan therefore is a very important player for Washington. He has full access to the top echelons both in the State Department and in the Pentagon. This equation has been strengthened on account of the ongoing operations in Afghanistan for mutual benefit being conducted by the USA and Pakistan.
Therefore Ijaz Mansoor’s allegations against the former Ambassador Haqqani is illogical. Why would Haqqani go through another player of dubious character for such a sensitive matter as seeking intervention by Washington against the Pakistan Army in Islamabad, when he had direct access to the powers in Washington? In any case such sensitive matters are conveyed verbally and not in writing.
To keep its relevance, the Pakistan Army created an enemy in India and imposed on it four wars which it lost including a chunk of the country in the bargain. The only wars the Pakistan Army could win occasionally was against its own people, namely the diverse ethnic groups in Sind and Baluchistan.
It is obvious that the dirty tricks department of the ISI on behalf of the Pakistan Army has planted this document through Ijaz Mansoor since they are desperate to engineer the removal of President Zardari and Prime Minister Gilani from their positions without resorting to a military coup.
Also, if one analyses the activities and utterances by Imran Khan and the huge turnout at his rallies with the help of the Irregular forces, Musharraf’s plan to return to Pakistan by the end of January to participate in the elections, it becomes evident that the ISI and the Pakistan Army are engaged in an effort to ensure early elections and that individuals supported by them take over as the President and the Prime Minister of Pakistan. Who will be more convenient than Imran Khan as the Prime Minister and Musharraf as the President? In case Haqqani was guilty, he would not have returned to Islamabad, as he could be imprisoned. Incidentally, the Pakistan Army does not like Haqqani but the Americans certainly do.
In the unfolding drama of Memogate, it appears Generals Kayani, Shuza Pasha and Musharraf along with the Pakistan Army, ISI and Imran Khan are on the same page.
To keep its relevance, the Pakistan Army created an enemy in India and imposed on it four wars which it lost including a chunk of the country in the bargain. The only wars the Pakistan Army could win occasionally was against its own people, namely the diverse ethnic groups in Sind and Baluchistan. However, while such internal victories were possible in the past, it is unlikely to be so in the future as different Lashkars pitched against the Army and Islamabad are highly motivated and better equipped. Earlier, focus by creation of an external enemy in India ensured the unity of diverse groups under the umbrella of Pakistan; but this adhesive is not strong enough and does not work anymore.
| Editor's Pick |
With Zardari and Gilani unfazed, Nawaz and Imran against military coup, the Pakistan Army’s days of being a state within a state are numbered. Its primacy is under threat by the civil society and the diverse ethnic groups. However, in the coming years, the struggle between the military and the different groups of Lashkars and independent power centres will witness unprecedented anarchy and bloodshed, as traditionally, internal dissensions are normally resolved with the help of the sword.
In all likelihood, Pakistan will splinter in the coming years with most of the sub-states becoming independent of Pakistan Punjab. In the following fifteen years, this is likely to lead to re-stitching of the Indian sub-continent, something similar to the European Union.
These multiple contradictions within will keep the Pakistan Army deeply engaged with the different warring groups in an effort to ensure the unity of Pakistan.
If the Pakistan Army successfully manages to divert attention from internal problems and joins hands with China against India, then we face a formidable threat on two fronts. China already treats Pakistan as one of its provinces! Also if the Taliban are able to take control of Afghanistan with help from the Pakistan Army, an Islamic Emirate will emerge in our neighborhood that will be dangerous for our multi-cultural and multi-party democracy and Central Asia.
The only way out of the mess for Pakistan is to emulate India’s federal structure with fair amount of autonomy to the sub-nationalities and ensure that the Pakistan Army is brought under the constitution of the country, instead of it acting as an independent state.
In all likelihood, Pakistan will splinter in the coming years with most of the sub-states becoming independent of Pakistan Punjab. In the following fifteen years, this is likely to lead to re-stitching of the Indian sub-continent, something similar to the European Union.
In order to benefit from the fallout, India should remove the huge governance deficit that encourages rebellion within by its citizens (and in turn is exploited by the external players,) as well as rapidly modernise the Indian Armed Forces that are capable of defending not only the borders but safeguarding the growing strategic interests in the region and beyond.
About the author
Bharat Verma, a former Cavalry Officer is Editor, Indian Defence Review, frequently appears on television as a commentator, and is author of the books, Fault Lines and Indian Armed Forces
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These multiple contradictions within will keep the Pakistan Army deeply engaged with the different warring groups in an effort to ensure the unity of Pakistan.it outsourcing
The European Union is a loose Union, a kind of UN. We have already have that in SAARC. Before we take over (parts) of Pakistan, we must think of how to defuse the Muslim demographic bomb of South Asia or else it will be a worthless and dangerous exercise..
Mr. Bharat Verma's articles are always no-nonsense, realistic and straight to the point. i have always liked your style of writing.
Why is splintering of Pakistan in India's interest and stitching it back together with India like a european union ? Ridiculous pattern of thought in my opinion. This thought process which is a remnant of the partition needs to be done away with and buried in the past. Leave Pakistan and the rest of the central asia/afghanistan to it's own destiny. Focus on further decentralization and federalization of India for better growth and empowerment of the states. Create an effective national security agency to tackle home grown terrorism. Curb the radical islamic groups by cutting their sources of funding, using media to expose them and deal with them firmly if they break the law. Encourage christianity by first protecting it and then expanding it in Kashmir and other tribal areas of India. Just this action will secure Kashmir like nothing else will. Not everybody is satisfied with the eastern religions and Christianity is a religion/ideology which is harmless and can certainly provide an excellent counter to the other Abrahamic faith which is Islam which has an inbuilt political/military ideology. China is not an enemy and needs to be partnered with slowly and gradually.
Keep dreaming Indians :p
Dear Verma Sepration of Kashmir and Assam from India is much likely then Balochistan from Pakistan. ground realities are against this so called independent movement sponsored by foreign powers. it has many reasons like half of Balochistan is pashtun even Quita the capital of Baluchistan is a Pashtun majority city. and we Pashtun will never allow Balochistan to be separated.
PakiMilitary played the card - fight a war against terrorism - to convince U.S.A to infllict mega injuries to Balochs with their view to completely be victorous in Balochistan. Americans were befooled, as usual, and said `yes` with their requests to fight against Talibans. Again, PakiMilitary sensed danger from their eastern borders as they had to concentrate their efforts on their western borders to bleed NATO forces in Afghanistan. American fat-minded guys accepted the wishes of Paki establishement and began their efforts to bring India
This ethnic unity inside the Army and its Irregular Forces has created an institution strong enough to impose its will forcibly on all diverse ethnic groups and the state institutions.Online Markedsføring
Mr. Verma and my dear readers who responded to his article by writing their comments,,, its always been the dream of India to see Pakistan as fail state ,,, country who's creation was opposed by Hindus and even the Britishers,,,since then India has always dream to splinter Pakistan by creating multiple problem in its way,,, whether its question of distribution of assets at time of creation ,, the problem of water .. or supporting insurgency within Pakistan ,, India has always been at forefront,,, you people have tried your best and still struggling hard for your these objectives,, you are the people who created Bangladesh,, who created insurgency in Balochistan ,, who are supporting Taliban groups within Pakistan to fight against Pakistan Army,, you are involved in bombing activities ,, terrorists action,, and supporting criminal groups ... you are the people who are suppressing the voice of Kashmiri people,, denying their right of self existence and independence... you are the people who always conspire internationally to defame Pakistan ,, you are people who are full of Anti Pakistan sentiments and this leads you to only miss calculations and nothing else,, this country is created to exist,, none of your dream will come true,, India and Indian people like you will never be able to see this happening,, we are very much of aware from people like you and neighbour like India,, u neither accepted our creation nor u will ever accept it,, u will try to destabilize Pakistan but will not be successful in that,, last decade was biggest test for my country,, we have emerged from this difficult time.... now we will consolidate ,, we will strengthen ourself and prove our self as one of the most strong and developing nation of world,, just forget what ur thinking and writing ,,
The author Bharat Verma is absolutely right in stating that Pakistan will not be around in the future. But he is being too generous in giving the Pakistani State 15 years before it disintegrates. Pakistan is on the verge of a civil war and can collapse any moment. That it has survived so many years is thanks to the support which it has received from three countries, viz., USA, China and Saudi Arabia, for a divergent set of reasons. USA supported Pakistan, not because it wants a buffer against India. In fact, ever since India's independence and even before that, USA politicians of both major parties and even many thinking citizens, had always been keen on establishing a strong link with India and ever since India's independence, relations between USA and India have been extremely cordial, notwithstanding some under-currents, particularly during the regime of the former discredited USA President, Richard Nixon. But, while relations between both countries have been very cordial, USA had and to some extent, even now has, one major defect. It wants friends to be yes persons and to some extent, satellites. This, India refused and during the Cold War era, USA patronised Pakistan, to have an eye on the Middle Eastern countries and check the influence of Communism there. Pakistan willingly accepted the role of a USA stooge and its top leaders minted billions of dollars as a result. Saudi Arabia, which was and is an ally of USA, supported Pakistan, partly to supplement USA's efforts and partly because, it prides itself on being the principal Islamic country in the world. But even Saudi Arabiia's top leaders, have in private at least, shown a far greater regard for India, then for Pakistan, at any point of time. China on the other hand, being the world's largest totalitarian regime, has always felt that India's democracy is a threat. This, despite the long cultural relations of more than 5,100 years, that have characterised both nations. To checkmate India, China supported Pakistan. But there are limits to supporting a supplicant. The moment the sponsor realises that the supplicant is a liability, the sponsor will jettison it. So, today, with Pakistan having become an international liability, thanks to the international jihadi movement headquartered there, its patrons are likely to abandon it sooner than later and with the withdrawal of this external support system, its unnatural existence will come to an end.
Its definitely in India's interest if Pakistan disintegrates. However, we should not do another blunder of creating 4 or more new nations. Unlike 1971, there is no point in allowing independence for pakistani provinces. Instead we should reunite these states with India. This has two advantages. First, direct control of the land allows our military to take on the terrorists on their home turf, thereby reducing terrorism in rest of India. Two, it will allow our military to take on China and diminish its influence in South Asia. All said and done, its only possible if we are able to take control of Pakistani nukes or risk a nuclear war for long term peace. However we should also be ready for a conflict with China, in case Pakistan disintegrates and we attempt to take over the land. Hence its imperative for India to increase its military strength to fight war on multiple fronts viz. Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, etc.
Mr. Verma I hope you are right in predicting the breakup of Pakistan. It will bring enormous divedends to India regardless of what some buffoons in India say. As a Kashmiri Pandit It is in the best interest of india in general and our Community in particular if Pakistan disintegrates. Let us hope and pray. By the way nice article. Always a pleasure to read your columns. Cheers