A Diplomatic View of the MMRCA Deal
India’s tender for 126 Medium Range Multi-role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) has been the object of intensive and prolonged international interest. Such a massive order for advanced aircraft by a single country for procurement from the international market is rare. All the major defence equipment exporters in the world have been eyeing this $10 billion contract avidly, with US, Russia, France, Sweden and the European consortium of Germany, UK, Italy and Spain in the fray. The total value of this contract will, of course, be much more than the $10 billion price tag being currently mentioned if the supply of spare parts, upgrades etc over the 30 to 40 year service life of the aircraft are taken into account. There are other fall-outs also, as such a major contract creates mutual stakes and networks of cooperation between defence establishments, with a catalytic effect not only in enhancing defence cooperation in general, but in improving political relations as well.
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A lot of suspense has accompanied this tender, with a great deal of uncertainty about which aircraft would eventually be shortlisted for final selection. Observers were unclear whether the evaluation process would be purely technical, or would be influenced by political considerations. In any case, the general belief is that decisions on such high-value defence contracts that have an important political fall-out can never be divorced from politics and therefore can never be purely technical.
...if the US can impose an arms embargo against China despite the intensity of their economic and financial ties and the need to manage their conflicting strategic interests in East Asia which carries its own compulsions of keeping China in good humour, why cannot the US revise its policy of arming a country that is unstable, almost failing as a state in US eyes, irresponsible on nuclear matters, and most responsible for the dangerous spread of extremism and terrorism in the region and well beyond?
The lack of confidence in our defence procurement process, with its inordinate delays and lack of transparency, added to speculation about the time-frame of decision making. The marked bureaucratic apathy in the Ministry of Defence, with officials inclined to avoid taking responsibility for decisions and delaying them as much as possible so as to protect themselves from potential controversies later, was seen as good reason to expect procrastination. The noxious games played by competing companies against each other, roping in members of parliament and planting press articles to cast doubt on the probity of the evaluation process and the final award, which has featured as an unpalatable side-show of defence deals in India, was expected to play its part too in deferring decisions.
... the evaluation process for the MMRCA deal has proceeded remarkably well. A very difficult exercise has been completed in good time. Confidentiality has been maintained...
It was widely believed that the evaluation process would be highly complex in any case, with the performance parameters listed for the aircraft being too numerous, and none of the competing aircraft expected to meet all of them in trials. Beyond this, it was bandied about by cynics that even if the Air Force were to do a purely objective performance-based exercise in evaluating the aircraft, its final recommendation would watch for signals from the Ministry of Defence.
In the event, the evaluation process for the MMRCA deal has proceeded remarkably well. A very difficult exercise has been completed in good time. Confidentiality has been maintained, apart from the bizarre instance of an off-sets related file being found in a most unlikely place. Despite efforts by interested parties to probe into the progress of the evaluation process, no substantial leakage of information seems to have occurred, indicating, to the credit of those involved, that the integrity of the process was maintained. The most striking aspect of the technical evaluation is, however, the rather unexpected result. Only the Eurofighter and the Rafale have been retained in the short list for final selection; the two US aircraft have been excluded from further consideration.
The most active in striving to win the MMRCA contract have been the US companies. Their preparatory work in the field has been the most vigorous at the political, official and business levels, including tying up with Indian companies in the private sector for fulfilling the exacting off-set obligations of the contract – up to 50 percent of its value. The Americans understood no doubt that this contract provided an opportunity to capture a large share of the Indian defence market, changing dramatically the paradigm of India-US defence ties, hitherto marked by reticence on the Indian side to put itself in a position of long term dependence on the US for a crucial part of its defence preparedness. The Americans must have also judged that the political conditions had become sufficiently favourable to them to eye this massive contract seriously, with the rise of trust levels in the US in the Indian security establishment after the Indo-US nuclear deal, and with a perceived pro-US government in power in Delhi.
The Americans seemed to have proceeded on the assumption that with India placing orders for advanced US defence equipment such as 6 C-130J aircraft and 8 P-8I long range maritime patrol aircraft, doubts about the reliability of the US as a defence equipment supplier had abated. They may have also concluded that their policy of supplying arms to Pakistan, including F-16 aircraft, no longer disqualified them from selling advanced aircraft to India, including F-16s. The problem of restrictive conditions that the US imposes on arms sales to third countries, such as end-use monitoring, that India finds intrusive and unpalatable, would have seemed to them to have been basically addressed with our acceptance of such conditions in other deals concluded with them.
Any veritable strategic relationship must have defence ties as a component. If India takes its strategic relationship with the US seriously, it has to factor into the equation an arms procurement relationship.
In this background, the exclusion of the two US aircraft from the competition after the completion of the technical evaluation process by the Indian Air Force has run counter to all expectations. Given the political lobbying by the US in favour of the US companies, the thoroughgoing field work done by US companies to position themselves favourably to win the contract and the incessant talk about the political transformation of US-India ties and the growing strategic partnership between the two countries, it seemed highly unlikely that the Indian government would have the political option of omitting the US aircraft from even the shortlist of final contenders.
The US rhetoric that it considered its relationship with India as an indispensable one for the 21st century, the breadth of the engagement between the two countries, the in-principle support given by the US for India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council, the encouragement to India to play a more active role in the eastern part of Asia with concerns about China’s rise no doubt in mind, all worked in favour of strengthening perceptions that the ground for this major contract going to the Americans was being laid. The declared willingness of the US to ease export controls applicable to India and the removal of most of the remaining Indian organizations from the US Entity List, especially the DRDO related ones, could also have been interpreted as a move to set at rest India’s concerns about technology transfers within the ambit of a growing defence relationship with the US.
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Any veritable strategic relationship must have defence ties as a component. If India takes its strategic relationship with the US seriously, it has to factor into the equation an arms procurement relationship. A strategic partnership cannot be developed without trust, and if India were to continue to question how much trust it can repose in the US as a defence partner, an important ingredient would be lacking in fostering a really close relationship in the future.
It is clear India’s MMRCA will be a European aircraft, which is a judicious decision in view of Europe’s established role in meeting our defence needs and its importance as a strategic partner.
But then, the record of the US in imposing sanctions not only on India, but also a host of other countries, cannot be ignored. Even if today India’s relationship with the US Administration is better than ever before, there is no guarantee that differences on some sensitive issue in the future will not push the US political process towards sanctions, or a threat to impose them, in order to constrain India’s freedom of choice. A conflict with Pakistan could be an example, especially as the US is selling arms to both sides, and US arms will be used by both in case of active hostilities. This may well prompt the US Congress to seek to impose an arms embargo on both countries, especially in the context of fears of a nuclear exchange in the sub-continent if any military confrontation is not quickly contained.
Iran is another example of potential differences emerging between India and the US. The US is ultra-sensitive about any form of military cooperation between Iran and India. Iran is under stringent US sanctions over and above the UN approved ones, and this has not only frozen India-Iran discussions on energy projects, India is now finding it difficult to even pay for the large quantities of crude oil it buys from Iran. This is so because of the control the US exercises over all dollar transactions with Iran, an oversight that the EU now applies to euro transactions too, and the reluctance of Indian and other banks to run the risk of disrupting their normal operations by disregarding the US and EU sanctions because of their extra-territorial nature. This disruption is happening even when procurement of crude from Iran is not otherwise subject to sanctions. Such restrictions damage India’s energy security on which an understanding with the US within the ambit of a “strategic” relationship is absent.
In the context of the MMRCA deal, US arms supplies to Pakistan did not acquire a political profile that the issue merited in principle. Why the incongruity of the US supplying frontline fighters to Pakistan, given the latter’s unremitting hostility towards India, its diversion of American funds intended for building up its counter-terrorism capabilities to acquisition of India-specific arms, its unwillingness to act firmly against jihadi groups targeting India and procrastination in bringing those responsible for Mumbai to justice, and, at the same time, seeking to sell similar aircraft to India, has not attracted more critical political-level attention in India is surprising. There would have been, on the face of it, something wrong and undesirable in the same American company supplying aircraft to both India and Pakistan, in better equipping militarily two long time adversaries in their mutual confrontation.
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The noxious games played by competing companies against each other, roping in members of parliament and planting press articles to cast doubt on the probity of the evaluation process.Firma Hjemmeside
"Those who have analysed the comparative capabilities of the aircraft dispassionately recognize the superiority of the European platforms in aerodynamics and close combat capability, though the Americans have for the present a superior AESA radar that the Europeans too are in the process of developing..." - How expert are "those" who made such assessment ? F-16 has the lowest radar cross-section among all others quoted. I earnestly hope that the respected FS tightens up his write-ups in technical matters.
just go for typhonn jets buy 60 or 30 of the shelf at the fastest pace then build the rest in India... Iff to go for additional 64 buy rafale 32 off the shelf
"The Eurofighter and the Rafale are much newer aircraft than the F-16 and the F-18 in design. The latter represent fully mature technologies, with little room for growth especially over the next 30 years or more when the MMRCA will be in service."A response given in may 2011 about the development of the Rafale until its mid-life upgrade frome the DGA (the official authority in this matter): http://rafalenews.blogspot.com/2011/06/rafale-f3-04t-and-behong.html. It seems more optimistic than your appreciation.
going for more su-30mki was never an option because sukhois are of a different class as compared to MMRCA,,,.WHAT the iaf wants is a mix of high,medium and low end light fighters.while su-30 fits in the first one,,mmrca and lca tejas fits in the third,,.initially Iaf wanted mirage-2000-5 for this but then the deal was sweetened by american offers of f-16 block 60 and f-18 super hornet,..soon the french realised that mirages were obsolete so they brought rafale to the table followed by eurofighter from the consortium...IAF has done a commendable job here keeping the yanky fighter at bay....the real dilemma for iaf now begins because now it has to be seen what the GOI does when the costs of the two shortlisted jets far exceeds the $10 billion limit sanctioned for mmrca
Interesting Topic, Sometines I think that Govt has Lost much time in MOdernisation. Instead of going for 126-189 MMRCA, India would have struck deal for More than 300 Sukhoi in Early 2007 when Country sealed deal for 40 for some 170 Cr each.Last year 40 More was struck but at double price each 320 CR . Then why to waste time and money for MMRCA which is delayed by 5 years and will be inducted in Next 10 Years.Similar case is for Submarines, German Sub are not upgraded, Scorpene are delayed by 3 Yrs and Former Naval chief Sureesh Mehta demanded 6 more in 2008 but still undecided. If India would have struck deal for 300-400 Sukhoi in 2007 we would have saved more moneyJAI HIND