Strategic Implications of Exercise Red Flag 2008

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In the second week of July 2008, a contingent of the Indian Air Force (IAF) consisting of eight Su-30 MKI air dominance fighters, two IL-78 in-flight refuellers and an IL-76 heavy lift transport aircraft along with 247 personnel winged their way halfway across the globe to the deserts of Nevada. At the invitation of the US Air Force, the contingent was headed for the Nellis airbase to participate in Exercise Red Flag, scheduled to be held from 09 to 23 August 2008. This has been the largest single deployment undertaken by the IAF outside the country. 

Held for the first time in 1975, Exercise Red Flag is a prestigious multinational event hosted three to four times a year by the USAF at the Nellis airbase. It is acknowledged to be the most advanced and professionally challenging fighter exercise conducted anywhere in the world. This time, apart from the hosts fielding the F-15s and F-16s, others participatingts were the French Air Force with the Rafale and the Republic of Korea Air Force with six F-15s. 

Red Flag of August 2008 was marked by a number of firsts. It was for the first time that the IAF, belonging to a country that is not a member of NATO or a declared ally, and the Republic of Korea Air Force were invited to participate in this exercise. It was also the first time that the SU 30 MKI, a frontline combat aircraft of Russian design made its appearance in the American skies and that too in a multi-national congregation. Rated between fourth and fifth generation, the latest and highly advanced version of the SU 30 family, the SU 30 MKI is regarded as one of the most versatile and formidable combat aircraft in the world today. Indeed the attributes of this aircraft, as also the professional competence of the IAF to exploit its capabilities, would logically have been of immense interest to all the participants of Exercise Red Flag, particularly the hosts. 

The Indian debut in Exercise Red Flag was somewhat masked by another event of profound significance unfolding at that time – the Indo-US Nuclear deal. The fate of the deal at that point in time seemed uncertain as the nation watched with mixed feelings the agonizing passage of the three-year old historic agreement on the last lap of its journey through the labyrinths of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group, followed by intense scrutiny by the law-makers in the US. Exercise Red Flag was meant to provide an opportunity to elements of the USAF, both at home as also in the UK and Japan, to assemble at Nellis to go through the complete range of simulated air warfare exercises with the long term objective of developing synergy, standardized practices and interoperability amongst potential allies, should the need to undertake combined operations arise in the future. 

Undoubtedly, the most difficult aspect for the youthful pilots of the IAF would have been the requirement to adapt in a very short time to the technologically advanced and complex network-centric operational environment crafted for the exercise with integration of AWACS, UAVs and satellites. The completely new and unfamiliar environment would have placed a heavy demand on the capability of fighter pilots to operate both individually and in groups, pushing their machines to the limits of the performance envelope. Unfortunately, as operation of on-board electronic systems of the SU 30 MKI involving emissions were, through an IAF policy directive, restricted to the ‘Training Mode’, the extent of exploitation of its formidable capability was understandably somewhat curtailed. Despite this handicap, the IAF contingent is reported to have emerged with flying colours with its professional skills and leadership qualities being widely acknowledged. 

The fleet of IL 78 in-flight refueling aircraft of the IAF deserves special mention. In-flight refueling was introduced into the IAF just three years ago. During this brief period, the IAF has achieved a high operational status, and in this exercise as also in the preceding one in Alaska a year ago, the operating crew gave an excellent account of themselves. The crew were in no respect found wanting in their knowledge base and operational competence when compared with the host nation which has over five decades of experience in this discipline. Apart from the unique opportunity to provide international exposure to the IAF, the exercise was of immense value. In the words of the Chief of the Air Staff: “It helped the IAF improve on its concepts, training patterns, maintenance and flying practices”. 

Recognition of the new status of the IAF is implicit in the invitation by the US to the IAF to participate in Exercise Red Flag on a regular basis. Whether this Rs 100 crore exercise would be affordable every year is another question. 

Bilateral exercise with a foreign air force in not a new experience for the IAF. In the late sixties, the IAF and the Royal Air Force of the UK carried out a joint exercise code-named “Shikhsha”. In the post cold war era, the IAF and the USAF undertook a series of joint exercises in India codenamed “Cope India”. Fighter pilots of the IAF gave an excellent account of themselves, even triggering a debate in the USAF about the urgency of upgrading their capability and the need to review training doctrine. Earlier on, IAF pilots had flown Jaguar strike fighters supported by IL 78 in-flight refuelling aircraft and an IL 76 transport aircraft all the way to Alaska to participate in the multinational exercise “Cope-Thunder”. IAF pilots have also exercised with the air forces of other nations such as France, Singapore and the UAE. 

Acclaimed as a ‘new high in Indo-US military cooperation’, the significance of participation by the IAF in Exercise Red Flag in August 2008 needs to be evaluated in the wider context of India’s emerging status in the evolving world order. Following the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the USSR, Russia was left in complete political, economic and social disarray. The major ingredient that had provided strength to Indo-Soviet relations during the Cold War and Indo-Russian relations thereafter, was large scale one-way trade in military hardware resulting in near total dependence for weapon systems on a single source. In the initial years of the post Cold War era, the arms industry of the erstwhile Soviet Union lay badly fragmented causing serious difficulties for the Indian Armed Forces whose inventory was overwhelmingly of Soviet origin. In an effort at restructuring the economy and integration with the global economic system, Russia embraced a free market economy eroding the privileged status that India enjoyed for over three decades. As a result, since the nineties, there has been a distinct weakening of Indo-Russian relations, frequent rhetoric from both sides to the contrary notwithstanding. 

A combination of factors such as the emergence of a unipolar world and India beginning to ride the waves of a resurgent economy, paved the way for fresh alignment of strategic equations. India is now clearly emerging as a regional power capable of exerting political, economic and military influence in its neighbourhood. In the US perception, India is a ‘natural strategic partner’ who can contribute effectively to the maintenance of peace, stability and economic progress in South Asia. India can also be a reliable partner of the US in the pursuit of nuclear non-proliferation objectives as also in the global war against terrorism. In its strategic calculations, the US is unlikely to disregard India’s potential as a counterweight to China who, by all indications, is set on a path to achieve superpower status. China could well pose a serious challenge to the global pre-eminence of the US in the not too distant a future.

In the new geopolitical and geostrategic context, the oldest and the largest democracies in the world have begun to move closer to each other to forge a strategic relationship that has the potential to eventually take the shape of a comprehensive alliance. This is evident in the notable policy shifts on the part of the governments of the US and India during the last decade. Analysts believe that this congruence is only natural and spontaneous given the enduring democratic traditions and value systems of both nations. It would, therefore be in the interest of the US that as an ally, India continues to grow in strength economically and militarily to collaborate effectively for the achievement of common strategic objectives. It is the pursuit of this philosophy that inspired the US to turn their attention to the problem of energy security, a vital prerequisite to enable India to sustain rapid economic growth. The US, therefore, took the lead to craft the much hyped nuclear deal and campaigned relentlessly for successfully ending India’s three decade old nuclear isolation. Ironically, the process of operationalisation of the deal has been subject to greater controversy and debate in India than in the US or elsewhere. This is primarily due to the seemingly contradictory statements pertaining to assured supply of nuclear fuel, ambiguity over the right to carry out a nuclear test as a part of the indigenous strategic programme and the dichotomy in the political agenda amongst the leading political parties at home. 

 It goes without saying that there will be consequent and proportionate benefits to the American economy as well. Operationalisation of the deal will serve to revitalize the nuclear industry in the US that has been stagnant for the last two decades and assure billions of dollars worth of business opportunities in India for a large number of American companies. The Indian economy will benefit through massive investments from abroad as well as from access to the most advanced technologies that the world has to offer. 

The other factor and perhaps equally powerful that drives Indo-US relations are wider mutual economic interests covering many other sectors. The strengthening free market economy in India which is less than three decades old, has integrated well with the US economy. Global sales of military equipment constitute an important segment of the US economy. Somewhat saturated with the traditional source for procurement of major weapon systems, India has been exploring alternatives. There are clearly lucrative opportunities for the US and its military industrial complex which has already made significant gains in recent times having successfully negotiated or are in the process of concluding deals for aircraft and weapon systems worth billions. Two of the largest manufacturers of military aircraft in the US, Lockheed Martin with F-16 and Boeing with their offer of the F/A 18 Super Hornet, are in the race for the order of 126 Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft for the IAF, a mega deal that could reach a staggering $15 billion. In this context, Exercise Red Flag provided an opportunity for the IAF to associate with the USAF and get a closer look at and feel of the quality of the American military organizations and equipment, their technological sophistication, operational excellence and the ease of maintenance. This will definitely help develop opinions within the Indian military establishments that could discretely influence the decision-making process in favour of hardware of American origin. 

Clearly there are compelling political, economic and strategic reasons on both sides to nurture the growth of the strategic partnership between India and the US. Military cooperation is often the first and convenient step in the development of friendly and durable international equations. Hence the significance of participation of the IAF contingent in Exercise Red Flag over the deserts of Nevada.

However, there are other considerations that need to be taken into account to appreciate the full import of the direction the nation is moving in. Tectonic shifts in strategic equations of the Cold War era will have profound implications on existing relationships and is likely to alter the balance of power in the region. While India widens its strategic horizons through partnership with a new found ally, Russia is rapidly regaining its lost position in the comity of nations. Thanks to sound leadership and management of the resources of the nation, as also the surge in the price of oil and gas, the Russian economy is booming in stark contrast to the US economy, which is in the doldrums, with the time frame for recovery uncertain. The Russian economy is likely to be affected to a lesser degree from the ill effects of the recent ‘financial tsunami’ that has the potential to devastate the economies of the western world. This will, without doubt, impinge on the global status of the US vis-à-vis Russia that is clearly gearing up to challenge the supremacy of the US. The Russian arms industry is also prospering in the wake of the nation’s massive re-equipment drive and exports especially to China. On the international scene, Russia has emerged stronger from the episode in Georgia while the US, desperately seeking a way out of the quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan, failed to provide a convincing response to the crisis. Russia appears determined to restore its past glory and a bipolar world even risking open confrontation with the US. This is evident from a series of overt actions in the recent years. These include moves to enlarge her sphere of influence, refurbish nuclear arsenal, aggressive patrolling of international waters or airspace and explicit cooperation with Iran and Venezuela. 

There is then the China factor. Despite sizeable American investments in the Chinese economy, serious differences between the US and China over Taiwan persist. The Chinese economy is growing at a rate faster than that of India’s and there are signs of strengthening of ties with Russia. China continues to effectively encircle India expanding her influence in practically all the countries in the immediate neighbourhood. Reports emanating from Pakistan indicate intent of enhanced level of support by China to Pakistan, especially in the nuclear regime. China’s move to build nuclear reactors in Pakistan is perhaps in direct response to the Indo-US nuclear deal and ought to be matter of concern for India. Meanwhile, resolution of the Sino-Indian border dispute remains elusive and the Chinese government reiterates its position on Arunachal with disconcerting regularity. With Russian help, China is embarked on modernization of her armed forces and is embarked on a major upgrade of military power to match her rapidly growing economy and global status. She continues to remain militarily proactive and develop infrastructure along the borders with India, actions that are clearly in excess of the requirement of economic development of the regions. 

The dynamics of the rapidly changing global and regional geopolitical and geo-strategic situation are indeed complex. Even if India is not seated at the high table, it is undeniable that friendship with the US would certainly serve her national interests. However, care needs to be exercised to ensure that new partnerships do not impinge on long standing equations with Russia. After all, Russia has stood by India for over four decades and has had a sobering influence on China vis-à-vis Sino-Indian relations. For India, China has been and will continue to be the principal rival, economically, politically and militarily. Driven largely by economic paradigms, Sino-Russian relations have been on the upswing. However, India’s growing proximity to the US could provide further impetus to the strengthening of ties between China and Russia as also strengthening ties between China and Pakistan. These developments could alter the balance of power in the region in a way that is detrimental to India’s interest. In pushing for a comprehensive alliance with the US at the cost of traditional ties in the region, India could well find herself isolated in the midst of an extremely hostile Asian neighbourhood without the comforting support of Russia or foolproof guarantees from the US. 

In such a situation, perhaps the Nehruvian philosophy of balanced international relations through a strategy of non-alignment might once again acquire relevance. The political, economic and military compulsions of today necessitate engagement with all and confrontation with none. Perhaps the Indian Air Force needs to search for an equivalent of Exercise Red Flag in Russia or China.