Russian-Chinese nervousness influences their vote on Syria
The veto by Russia and China on February 4,2012, of a resolution in the UN Security Council that called upon Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down in the face of the persisting movement against his regime is based not on an objective assessment of the ground situation in Syria, but on subjective apprehensions of the implications for the present leaderships in Russia and China should street movements in the Arab countries succeed with external support.
The action of the Western powers in pressing for a vote on the resolution, which enjoyed the expected support of the Arab League and the surprise support of India and Pakistan, in the face of a near certainty of a Russian-Chinese veto was motivated by two factors.
...need to keep the anti-Assad movement in Syria alive despite the brutal suppression by the regime by conveying to it a message of international solidarity.
The first factor was the need to keep the anti-Assad movement in Syria alive despite the brutal suppression by the regime by conveying to it a message of international solidarity. The second factor was the desire to convey a message of hope to the anti-Vladimir Putin dissident elements in Russia and the anti-Communist Party of China elements in China that they too could one day benefit from similar international solidarity if they kept their movements against the Governments in Moscow and Beijing alive.
The domestic situation in Russia is showing signs of some turbulence in the face of allegations against the fairness and legality of the recent elections to the Parliament. In China, opposition to the policies of the regime from Tibetan and Uighur elements has been gathering strength and assuming a violent form. Moreover, the economic difficulties are leading to instances of defiance of Governmental and Party authority even from the majority Han elements in the coastal areas.
It would be premature to talk of a united anti-regime movement in Russia and China, but there are definitely reports of the emergence of multiple pockets of dissidence against the present regimes. It is important for the West to ensure that these dissident pockets and scattered protest movements do not lose hope in the face of the suppression by the regimes.
to convey a message of hope to the anti-Vladimir Putin dissident elements in Russia and the anti-Communist Party of China elements in China that they too could one day benefit from similar international solidarity if they kept their movements against the Governments in Moscow and Beijing alive.
The West views the ground situation in Syria from the immediate perspective of bringing into power a new regime without a messy military intervention as one saw in Iraq and Libya and from the medium and long-term perspective of encouraging the growth of dissidence in Russia and China.
The determined veto of Russia and China on Syria is an indication of their fear that regime change through international solidarity with domestic protest movements could one day endanger their own regimes.
The problem is that the Assad regime cannot be saved. It is only a question of time before it falls due to the protest movement. The isolation of Russia and China and the widespread criticism of their veto would convey oxygen to the dissident movements in Russia and China too.
India did well in coming to terms with reality and in supporting the resolution. It keeps India on the side of the Syrian people fighting against a repressive regime. So long as external military intervention is not involved, there is no reason why India should remain neutral.
Pakistan’s support for the resolution in the face of the Chinese opposition to it is significant. It is a welcome initiative by the civilian Government in Islamabad not to put its eggs in the Chinese basket in the face of the popular anti-regime movements across the region.
About the author
B Raman is presently Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai & former Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. He is also the author of The Kaoboys of R&AW, Mumbai 26/11, Terrorism: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow, Intelligence: Past, Present & Future and A Terrorist State as a Frontline Ally.
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Let us talk of Syria. I don,t understand Mr. Ramans statement of no military intervention. It is the route followed in Libya by the West. Colonization of a different variety. We all should be wary of it. It may be a different result. In Egypt the elections brought islamic parties to the fore. So protest route is being kept alive. No country can allow street hooligans supported by trained mercenaries/special forces of interested Govts to capture power. West tried it in erstwhile Soviet Union and won some lost some. India should be very careful in taking sides in this game.
The Indian defence forces are neglecting the situation in our country .They should stamp out radicalism of all kind. India is in no position to match China . Even PM said that India had fallen behind China in terms of Science. Also the Military has said that Indian Military has fallen behind China.So instead of trying to hallucinating some crises in China. The Indian defence analyst should look inward and try to correct the rot that has destroyed the entire country.China is already a developed country . For the next five years they are going to focus on 1) developement of purchase power of their people 2) Democratization of their country (without any external interference) .India stands no where. Indian military has neglected the situation inside the Country and have let India fall miles behind. So the recent radicalisation of Hindus, Muslims, and Maoists is what Indian military should focus on. China , Russia, particularly the West- they dont consider India a competition. Because India does not listen to its people and tries to suppress them. So India is in Ruins because the responsible authorities have done nothing for their own people. Such a country can at best be a Marketplace. It cannot be a leader.So in terms of Foreign policy india is seen as always , a late partycrasher who no one cares about. America is propping up india for its own reasons. They are appalled by the sheer lack of concern the Indian authorities have for their own people. So look inward. Quite frankly , no one cares about india. They want India to be a marketplace. India cant even be that ! Good for bloody nothing ! So you may stop being a "Joker" in a game that is essentially between the Great powers of this Century. In many ways India is still that of 1950s , where on the international stage Nehru was a running joke . He used to crash in suddenly in international affairs and no body cared! But they were polite to him :)
I am concerned with the rise of hindu militancy in the country and the Saffronization of education and intellectual discourse in the country:- the recent move in MP to make Bhagwad Gita as a part of School Curriculum.- Banning Beef ( freedom of choice encroachement)- recent speech by Mohan Bhagwat of " spreading these workers to all parts of the Country to propound our doctrine"- Banning of Ramayana essay of A.K. Ramanujan by Delhi Uni. All these smell like attempts by the Hindu Right wing militant types to Saffronize the Country. The weakness of Manmohan Singh govt. and complete policy paralysis ( Chaos that may have been engineered by the RSS through its puppets in the BJP ) has aided this slow but steady rise of intolerence.So while thinking about foreign policy moves by India to support democratic movements , we must not forget the growing tide of Hindu Intolerant Radicalism and "Absolutism" in our own society. These bigot must be stopped in their strides immediately .The Recent Speech by Chinese Wen Jia bao supporting Village level Democracy is a clear indication that China is passing through a democratic transition as well. So whatever their international posture , THEY ARE HEADED IN A FORWARD DIRECTION SOCIALLY , SCIENTIFICALLY AND POLITICALLY . India is allowing these "Fringe elements" to force upon the country ,several Retrograde steps. These radical movements , just like Bhindranwale movement , will later receive covert "Foreign aid " in the near future if they are not stopped NOW. India cannot go through another "Bhindranwale Phase" (this time pan-Indian).Remember what happened to Shah of Iran. He was a modernist (although autocratic) and he was ousted by his own people without realising who they were supporting - because the Ayatollahs until then had been a "Fringe group" . As soon as Khomeinei got power, the people realised to their horror whom they had supported. Watch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skcCA70ELcc
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